An assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump during a Pennsylvania rally has significantly boosted his chances of winning the upcoming U.S. presidential election, as per data revealed by Polymarket.
Trump survived the assassination with a minor ear injury even as the alleged shooter Thomas Matthew Crooks was shot dead by security forces present at the rally. One person present among the spectators also died in the firing incident.
Trump’s campaign confirmed his safety, noting a minor ear injury, as the attempt occurred before his acceptance of the Republican nomination at the upcoming Republican National Convention, prompting Trump to call for unity and resilience against violence.
The betting market on Polymarket reflects a shift, with traders raising the probability of Trump winning the election from 60% to 71%. Conversely, Joe Biden’s chances fell to 18%, and Vice President Kamala Harris stands at 5%, according to Polymarket data.
Market analysts and geopolitical strategists, including Tina Fordham and Nick Twidale, suggest that the attempt could potentially increase Trump’s electoral prospects, citing historical precedents like Ronald Reagan’s post-assassination surge in popularity.
Additionally, Trump-related memecoins, such as MAGA and Donald Tremp (TREMP), experienced price surges following the incident, while memecoins related to Biden, like BODEN, saw declines.
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Elon Musk publicly endorsed Trump following the attempt, marking a shift in support from the billionaire CEO, who had previously been critical of Trump.
The failed assassination attempt has not only sparked political and market reactions but also reshaped expectations in the upcoming election, with Trump gaining momentum in both polls and market sentiment.